Trinidad and Tobago’s Misguided and Dangerous Embrace of Maduro’s Venezuela Hurts Latin America and Caribbean’s Future

Prime Minister Keith Rowley and his People’s National Movement (PNM) government are steering Trinidad and Tobago into treacherous geopolitical waters and economic disaster. Their unflinching alignment with Venezuela’s authoritarian regime under Nicolás Maduro — despite Caracas’s instability — reveal a myopic foreign policy that risks squandering Trinidad and Tobago’s regional influence, alienating historic partners, and deepening a decade-long economic crisis.

For years, Trinidad and Tobago was seen as a leader in the Caribbean’s energy sector, a regional hub of expertise in oil and gas, a clear leader in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), and a critical ally of the United States and Europe. 

With a decade of economic decline, a questionable alliance with Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian regime in Venezuela, the trajectory of Trinidad and Tobago should concern the international community, as it impacts the prosperity and stability of the Latin American and Caribbean region.

This conundrum is the clear result of questionable policy decisions and direction of the troubled government of Prime Minister Dr. Keith Rowley, in its tenth year of rule in Trinidad and Tobago. 

PNM’s Economic Mismanagement and the Decline of Trinidad’s Energy Sector

Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector accounts for 30% of GDP. The sector has declined precipitously the last ten years. 

In a move of economic self-sabotage, in 2018 the Rowley administration shut down the 101 year-old refinery at Petrotrin, the state-owned oil company, eliminating thousands of jobs, causing a foreign exchange crisis, and terminating the country’s deep refining capabilities. 

Between 2015 and 2023, official figures have shown that oil production has fallen by 32%, natural gas production by 32%, LNG production by 39%, ammonia production by 20%, drilling activity by 57%, energy sector GDP by 31%, jobs in the sector by 49%, and refinery throughput by 100%. 

Real GDP overall has fallen by roughly 20% during the period, and foreign investment in energy has declined – reaching negative levels. Unemployment has risen sharply, with many young professionals fleeing the country for better opportunities abroad.

A Troubling Alliance with Maduro’s Venezuela

The Rowley administration has seen the massive gas reserves of Venezuela as the key to reviving Trinidad and Tobago’s declining energy sector and placed a massive bet on it, putting not only Trinidad and Tobago, but the region at risk. 

Against the clear stance of the United States and European Union regarding the human rights abuses and dictatorial governance of Nicolás Maduro, and their identification of Venezuela as a narcotrafficking hub, Keith Rowley’s government has repeatedly defended and supported Venezuela’s regime. In contrast, even Brazil and Colombia, despite their leftist governments, maintain more balanced Venezuela policies.

From secretly allowing sanctioned Venezuelan officials into the country to dismissing concerns about regional security, Rowley has made it clear that his administration prioritizes ties with Caracas over concerns of Trinidad and Tobago’s historically closer allies in Washington, London, and Brussels. 

Despite geography, the citizens of Trinidad and Tobago are culturally and politically much closer to the US and Britain, since they are English speakers with an unbroken tradition of democracy since Independence in 1962 (2025 marks the 100th anniversary of the first national elections in Trinidad and Tobago). 

There has also been a problematic relationship with Venezuela over the years, with Venezuela’s sometimes imperialistic and expansionist ambitions, and problems Trinidadian fishermen have encountered with Venezuela’s Guardia Nacional and Venezuelan criminals on the seas. 

The Rowley administration’s closeness with the Maduro regime, accordingly, does not have popular support, and has caused friction on several occasions.

●  The Delcy Rodríguez Scandal: In April 2020, at the height of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez—a key Maduro official under U.S. sanctions—was secretly flown into Trinidad and Tobago for high-level discussions in Port of Spain. This controversial visit, later revealed to involve a secret gas deal, raised immediate red flags about whether Trinidad and Tobago was actively helping Maduro’s regime evade sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU. This meeting, which directly violated the Rio Treaty, was met with swift condemnation from the U.S. government and led to a diplomatic spat with then-U.S. Ambassador to Trinidad and Tobago, Joseph Mondello. Rowley’s administration had lied to the public about the meeting and later tried to justify its actions despite international outrage. They dismissed these concerns,and doubled down on their economic engagements with Caracas.

●  Wilmer Ruperti Scandal: Also in April 2020, Venezuelan shipping magnate Wilmer Ruperti orchestrated a fuel shipment from Trinidad and Tobago to Venezuela, aiming to alleviate the country's acute gasoline shortage. This operation drew scrutiny from U.S. authorities concerned about potential violations of sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil sector. Ruperti's business dealings have been marred by controversies. This includes his connection to a high-profile 2016 drug trafficking case involving Efraín Antonio Campo Flores and Franqui Francisco Flores de Freitas – nephews of Venezuela's first lady, Cilia Flores – and implications in corruption scandals within Venezuela. 

The Collapse of the Dragon Gas Deal

Rowley’s single biggest economic gamble has been his attempt to secure a gas deal with Venezuela’s Dragon Field – a joint offshore project with Venezuela that requires U.S. sanctions waivers to proceed. Despite the hype from Rowley’s government, this move has now backfired spectacularly.

“This is a regime that cannot keep the lights on in Caracas. Why would Trinidad trust it to deliver a complex offshore project?” asked a Latin America energy analyst. 

For years, the PNM government banked on the hope that the U.S. would relax sanctions to allow Trinidad and Tobago to tap into Venezuela’s vast energy reserves. The Trump administration flatly rejected this prospect, and while the Biden administration issued a brief waiver in 2023, the deal ultimately collapsed after Maduro refused to meet democratic election conditions.

This failure exposes Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector to major risks, as it neglected investment in its own resources while waiting for a deal that was never realistic. 

In the meanwhile, Trinidad and Tobago has already paid a portion of over US$1 million per year in taxes, and a further US$1 million for royalty, a special commission of five per cent, surface tax, social contributions, and a confidential signing bonus.

The Rowley administration has so tied Trinidad and Tobago’s future to the Dragon Gas deal that in one of his last speeches, he warned that if the deal does not go through, Trinidad and Tobago will have to endure a drastic and permanent decrease in the living standards it has enjoyed for the past 5 decades. This was recklessness of the highest order.

Trinidad and Tobago’s Democratic Backsliding

As the Rowley administration cozied up to the Maduro regime over the past decade, Trinidad and Tobago has witnessed an alarming erosion of democratic norms, as the government has systematically weakened electoral oversight, disregarded the rule of law, and undermined public trust in key democratic institutions. 

One of the most glaring signs of democratic regression is the refusal of the government to invite international election observers. For two decades, the presence of independent observers, such as the Commonwealth and the Organization of American States (OAS), has been a staple of general elections in Trinidad and Tobago. 

However, in the 2020 general elections, despite repeated calls by the Opposition, observers were not facilitated by the government.  

This year, ahead of the 2025 elections, the government has once again refused to commit to inviting international observers, despite the opposition United National Congress (UNC) and civil society groups urging them to do so. In a country with a history of highly competitive elections and credible allegations of electoral manipulation, this move appears to be a deliberate attempt to avoid transparency and accountability.  

For instance, in 2022, the government took an unprecedented step by illegally delaying local government elections, potentially for years, as had happened before in the country’s history. Instead of holding the elections as scheduled, the government unilaterally extended the terms of local representatives, effectively postponing the people’s right to vote.  

The Opposition took the government to the highest court of appeal, the Privy Council in London, which ruled that the government’s actions were unconstitutional and that elections had to be called. 

Another critical area of concern is the behavior of the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC), the nominally independent body responsible for overseeing elections. The courts have found the EBC to have acted illegally and improperly on at least two occasions.  

In one case, the EBC’s improper actions resulted in an Opposition victory being denied, even though votes were clearly cast in favor of the UNC. In another instance, the court found the EBC to have extended voting hours illegally, without proper notice. Serious allegations have been levelled about discrepancies in voter lists, the mishandling of ballots, electoral districts being unfairly redrawn to benefit the ruling party, and the hiring of partisan Commissioners, officers and polling day staff. The government’s refusal to subject the EBC’s actions to independent oversight further erodes confidence in the institution.  

In addition, key democratic institutions, including the Police Service Commission, the Police Service, the Office of the President, the Auditor-General, the Procurement Regulator, and the media, have come under increasing pressure from the government, which has been exposed by traditional and social media. Government officials have openly discussed curbing social media freedoms.  The Government has made several moves to centralise power, bypass parliamentary scrutiny, and weaken opposition oversight.  

Keith Rowley, in fact, is currently attempting to hand over his position as Prime Minister to his right hand man, Stuart Young, in a politically controversial move – even in his own party – in what constitutional experts and the parliamentary Opposition party deem an illegal and undemocratic transfer of power. Democratic norms have been fundamentally undermined by this administration.

Why the International Community Should Be Concerned

The implications of Trinidad and Tobago’s economic and diplomatic decline, and its tying of its fortunes to the rogue Maduro regime, extend throughout and beyond the Caribbean. As the geo-political competition between the U.S., China and Russia intensifies in Latin America and the Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago is no longer the stable, democratic, and economically strong regional driver that it once was.

The current administration has aligned itself with Nicolás Maduro’s autocratic regime, weakened its economic foundation and undermined democracy.

In addition, Trinidad and Tobago has become the 7th most murderous country in the world. Indeed, the three highest murder rates in history have occurred in the past three years, indicating the inability of the Rowley government to solve this fundamental problem. Due to the crisis, the country has been under a State of Emergency since 30 December 2024.

If left unchecked, Trinidad and Tobago risks becoming a failed state, plagued by crime, economic collapse, and increasing authoritarianism. Trinidad and Tobago is experiencing arguably the worst economic and political decline in its history. 

The international community must closely monitor the situation and call out the Rowley administration for its reckless actions, which can cause turmoil in the wider Caribbean and Latin American region.

The Future: A Need for Change

Resource-rich Trinidad and Tobago should be at the center of the Caribbean’s economic future and a driver for the entire region, as it has traditionally been. The country’s – and the region’s – best path forward is to:

1. Adopt policies that restore economic growth, including reviving Petrotrin with viable partners, expanding LNG exports, resuscitating and building upon the ammonia, methanol, iron and steel, fertiliser and other industries at the Point Lisas Industrial Estate, and ensuring that foreign investors see Trinidad and Tobago as a stable and attractive place to do business.

2. End the reckless alignment with Venezuela and focus on diversified relationships, especially traditional allies that share the values of good governance and transparency.

3. Rebuild ties with CARICOM partner, Guyana, and pursue energy partnerships that create jobs and investment opportunities for all Trinidadians and Tobagonians, and not just government officials. This government’s neglect of Guyana – the world’s fastest growing economy, with a new, rapidly expanding energy sector in need of the expertise and experience that Trinidad and Tobago possesses – is irrational and needlessly destructive.

Conclusion

By clinging to Venezuela, shutting down its own energy sector, and alienating its traditional allies, against the will of the population, Keith Rowley’s government has made Trinidad and Tobago weaker, poorer, and less relevant on the world stage. 

Port of Spain’s once-stellar reputation as a regional leader is fading, replaced by perceptions of strategic confusion and decline.

If the country is to reverse its decay, it must prioritise smart diplomacy and economic policy—before it is too late.

Trinidad and Tobago’s choices today will determine whether it becomes a cautionary tale of decline or resurrects itself as a Caribbean and Latin American powerhouse. Time — and patience with the PNM’s risky bets — is running out.