Tropical Storm Erin Strengthening on Path to Caribbean, Which Islands Are at Risk?

The National Hurricane Centre in Atlantic has warned citizens of a potential new system forming named Tropical Storm Erin, which is quickly moving towards the west and is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2025 season.  

As per the latest information shared by the National Hurricane Center, the system has passed the Cape Verde area in Africa is strengthening quickly. The authorities at NHC claims that this is too early to determine what impacts the tropical storm could bring to the island nations across Caribbean.  

 "Although it is still too early to know exactly what impacts Erin might bring to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, the risk has increased for Erin to move closer to these islands over the weekend. Interests there should monitor the progress of this storm," stated the NHC in a recent statement released on their social media. 

They further stated that there is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. 

"As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place." stated NHC. 

11 am Tue Aug 12 Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Erin.https://t.co/GZSnCvVRNN pic.twitter.com/FCIQdTcJcD

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 12, 2025

Which Caribbean islands will be affected from Tropical Storm Erin?  

Leeward Islands, specifically in the north including Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, and Barbuda could face the wrath of TS Erin. Apart from them, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, US Virgin Islands also remain under threats of getting hit  by the Tropical Storm or potentially a hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday.  

However, other regions out of the Caribbean including Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes are under major threat of getting hit by the hurricane and facing major damage. 

Tropical Storm #Erin Advisory 5: Erin Moving Quickly Westward. Forecast to Become a Hurricane in a Few Days Over the Central Tropical Atlantic. https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 12, 2025

According to the forecast shared by NHC, Erin has a high probability of strengthening into the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Wind, heavy rains, and rough seas could arrive in thee islands before the hurricane hits the island. The exact list of affected islands may also change over time as the storm’s path shifts.  

Surface Trough nears Louisiana 

The National Hurricane Centre has also warned that a surface trough is also nearing the coasts of Louisiana due to which there are high chances for localised flooding along the gulf coast. However, the NHC has further emphasized that there are no chances of further development for this tropical disturbance. The NHC also said that the Development is also not likely with a non-tropical low southeast of Nova Scotia. 

8 am EDT Aug 12: Aside from TS Erin, we are monitoring a surface trough near the coast of Louisiana, which could cause localized flooding along the Gulf coast, but development is not expected. Development is also not likely with a non-tropical low southeast of Nova Scotia.

For… pic.twitter.com/ozupnqBePL

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 12, 2025

The NHC and local authorities has however warned locals to stay updated with the official updates from the met department for all the updates on the developments on this tropical disturbance.