Heavy rainfall forecast across Caribbean as Eastern Pacific cyclone develops

A multi day rainfall event is expected in the Caribbean as the first Tropical Cyclone has formed over the Eastern Pacific. The cyclone is located -9.4°N, 126.7°W and was triggered due to the warming up of El Nino conditions as per 2:00 PM PDT, Tuesday.

The said cyclone which is also known as ‘Tropical Depression ONE-E’ refers to the first tropical depression of the season in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. It has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (25 kt)  that move west at 3 mph with a minimum pressure of 1008 mb.

The underlying conditions for the development of these waves was favoured by warming up of waters and dry conditions due to Saharan dust. In addition to this, the enhancements in the El Nino conditions also helped.

The Atlantic and Caribbean remain on the quiet side relative to the Eastern Pacific where a series of tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic. These are combined with an active Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and expected to bring increasing moisture. This in return will spark more frequent showers, thunderstorms, and periods of locally heavy rainfall to parts of the Caribbean.

These conditions will reach the Caribbean from midweek into the weekend. Tropical Wave no. 8 is forecast to enter the Southern region from Wednesday afternoon/evening while Tropical Wave no. 9 will move through on Friday into Saturday. Tropical Wave no. 10 is not expected until next week.

As these waves will likely be accompanied by the ITCZ, it will enhance the showers across the Guianas and Trinidad. While the rainfall will be beneficial in many areas, localized flooding is possible where heavier downpours occur persistently.

Satellite imagery shows increasing organization with thunderstorm activity developing around the center of circulation. Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual strengthening and the system is forecast to become a Tropical Storm by Wednesday.

As wetter conditions are expectedly incoming, people are advised to be mindful of the showers coming through and assert emergency preparedness.