Caribbean: The Eastern Caribbean Weather updates through its Facebook Page outlined that the start of a wet pattern is underway, with a large upper trough expanding south towards the Bahamas and Hispaniola. It will enhance moisture in the Caribbean Sea and the Lesser Antilles next couple of days lasting into early next week for some areas.
According to the Weather updates, the heaviest rainfall will be later Friday to Sunday in the Leewards, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico mainly, but times of heavy showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms will affect the Windwards and Trinidad and Tobago Friday to Weekend.
On Trinidad and Tobago, models indicate fewer chances on later Sat to Sun. Heavy rain chances continue early week for much of the Lesser Antilles due to moist SE flow in the ITCZ then more rain chances mid-late week/wknd with a possibly slow-moving tropical wave.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Pay attention to your met office reports and alerts, especially in southern islands and northern islands where recent heavy rainfall occurred.
The Cold Surge pushed heavy clusters of showers and thunderstorms into the SW Caribbean near Panama where a weak low has formed. It also pushed over the ABC islands this morning into the southern Caribbean Sea interacting with a tropical wave where a few scattered thundershowers are.
On the east of Venezuela it is pushing towards the Orinoco River basin and is moving slowly east and northeast over south/central Guianas where scattered thunderstorms remain. The easterly trade winds are slowing it down there. Overnight to Friday it should spread more showers and thunderstorms in those areas towards the coast and some push across the Trinidad and southern Windwards.
Also note a large upper trough is digging north of the Caribbean… it will cause enhanced rainfall in the region from Friday to weekend/early week.
The Andean/South American cold surge in Colombia/west Venezuela is generating large clusters of thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops tonight. The cold air is pushing moisture up onto the eastern facing flanks of the northern Andes thus generating tremendous uplift and rainfall. There is also likely locally severe winds.
These large clusters of thunderstorms will activate a low pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea next 24-48 hours. The northern Ands are tall, but not as tall as those further south and allows enough gaps for moisture to flow over to the west and NW.
On the eastern side of the surge, clusters of thunderstorms are impacting east Venezuela/West Guyana and southern Suriname. On overnight Thursday to Friday models indicate more thunderstorm coverage in the Guianas.
Information received from Eastern Caribbean Weather updates Facebook page.