WEATHER: Tropical Wave to increase threat for heavy rainfall

Large Tropical Wave in Caribbean has been increasing threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding

WEATHER: Tropical Wave to increase threat for heavy rainfall
WEATHER: Tropical Wave to increase threat for heavy rainfall

Weather: Large Tropical Wave in Caribbean has been increasing threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The parts of Lesser Antilles is also expected to face the potential risk of the adverse weather.

The resident around the area is asked to adopt vigilant approach while travelling. Residents Should Monitor Local Met Office & NHC Updates.

NHC has high chance of tropical depression forming 70% by Wed-Thurs. Recent model data hints at increasing threat of core passing near or over Leewards. But 94L is large, so central to north Windwards also have some risk for heavy rainfall.

As perthe update, the systems which are not well organized or weak storms tend to spread rainfall far from any “center”. A center is not as important when systems are weaker… rather a core area may be more important and then also far rainbands can impact islands well away from a core area.

Main models are a bit closer to the Leewards in recent runs. *Main Euro not included is weakening 94L as it passes thru north Windwards and Leewards. UKMET is also weak and a more west/south track.

GFS average ensemble track is closer to Leewards but still far offshore.

The Euro ECENS ensemble average track is near or over parts of the Leewards. The Canadian GEPS average track is over and near parts of Leewards.

Super blend of 4 reliable model ensemble tracks has higher probabilities near or over the Leewards.

The multi-model ensemble average track has been trending closer to the Leewards as of last plot 8am Tues.

Watch for 2 scenarios where the center/core area of 94L could pass from north Windwards to Leewards or offshore of Leewards. 94L is large so rainfall could still be an issue far from a center/core. The more west and south scenario will be more impactful to the islands.

As per the weather update, the threats of thunderstorms have been prevailed in the Caribbean.