WEATHER: Tropical Disturbance to turn into Storm

A large tropical disturbance, 94L is likely to become a tropical depression or storm by early to mid next week over the central to western tropical Atlantic

WEATHER: Tropical Disturbance to turn into Storm
WEATHER: Tropical Disturbance to turn into Storm

Weather: A large tropical disturbance, 94L is likely to become a tropical depression or storm by early to mid next week over the central to western tropical Atlantic. Latest NHC outlook at 8pm Sat gives it 70% chance of formation in 48 hours and 90% in 7 days.

It has large areas of moderate to strong thunderstorms to the NW and SE. The recent main models shifted forecast tracks more north some pass near Leewards or offshore.

There are still many tracks of ensembles of the Euro model and few GFS into the central to north Lesser Antilles whilst most stronger ones are near Leewards or offshore.

The NHC path in red, considers these various scenarios and is very broad closer to the islands. This indicates a wide range if scenarios and uncertainty.

So it is still too early to know where or how strong 94L will get, though the threat of a close encounter seems higher in Leewards for now. But as the NHC map shows, there is some threat to north Windwards too. It’s not 0%.

For local weather, wait till it gets closer. It’s hard to know local rainfall 6 to 7 days out when it involves the peripheral effects of a system that could pass 1000 miles northeast or 400 miles. It’s asking a lot to say rain will fall here or there.

The Barbados Meteorological Services is closely monitoring the progress of an area of low pressure near 9N, 31W at 11:00 a.m. today Saturday, October 14th, 2023.

Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development this weekend and early next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves westward or west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic.

There is still some uncertainty in model guidance regarding the track and intensity of this system. Regardless of development, the system is expected to be near the Eastern Caribbean sometime late next week.