Weather: Tropical Depression expected in a few days as conditions become favorable. NHC track path shifted NW in the latter timeframe; it reflects that there are more potential model tracks that keep 94L “center” passing north of Leewards but some are from north Windwards to Leewards.
Last night’s 8pm Euro ensemble tracks for 94L show 2 general groups; 1 through the central to north Windwards and another thru the north Leewards or offshore. There seem to be more stronger tracks in the latter.
Several of the GEPS(Canadian CMC) tracks are also from Dominica to Leewards.
*The GEFS/GFS tracks are mostly offshore, few over Leewards, but it looks like it is predicting too strong and does not have a realistic initial and early motion next 24 hours.
94L itself is a very large system. Has several areas of scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms and other more widespread showers, and isolated thunderstorms from nearly 32W to 45W and 15N south to 5N … energy and moisture (see moisture imagery 5th pic) from a trailing tropical wave is still being absorbed slowly into 94L, on its eastern side, since late Saturday and this in part caused its circulation to be disrupted and stretched to the ENE. On early visible loop you can see the large ENE to WSW elongated spin… with another broad “center” area to the SW near 8-9N/38-40W where rainbands are converging.
Since it came from large sources of instability and convergence, it can put on rainfall and convective rainbands over a large area once the upper winds relax.
Another reason for its rainmaking potential is that it will be coming onto increasingly hotter sea surface which will help with instability. Instability generally increases if sea surface is extra warm or if they have extra cold upper air(as in upper troughs).
Additionally, models indicate a generally slower motion once it gets into the Leewards area and near/north of the islands due to the effect of a large mid-latitude trough off the US east coast. This also causes a long fetch of SE winds bringing deep equatorial air.
Anglina Byron, developed a deep-seated passion for journalism. Anglina is recognized for her tenacity, strength, and unwavering commitment to delivering honest and reliable news across the Caribbean. She covers general affairs of the region.
