WEATHER: A surface trough will bring a few showers tonight to the Lesser Antilles, mainly WIndwards. Heavy showers and thunderstorms with a tropical wave, which combined with the low pressure area of 95L, will be affecting the Lesser Antilles from mid-late Monday.
The core area of 95L will pass the central Windwards around Barbados, St. Vincent, St Lucia on Tuesday. Some of the rainfall will be heavy with gusty winds. There’s a chance of localized flooding. Monitor your national met office for alerts.
Some additional showers lasting to Wednesday especially in Windwards to Trinidad. Per NHC, 95L still has a low 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression till it reaches the islands. The area of spin is small but not under thunderstorms (near 11N 49W).
If it can gain some thunderstorms for a couple hours it form but the rainfall and impacts don’t change much if it does not.
In long range, a tropical wave is starting to come off west Africa with the main portion coming off Mon-Tues. Models have sometimes shown weak development, but for now it looks like it may reach the islands as a robust tropical wave in 7-8 days end of July.
4th: An increase in cloudy periods with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with medium potential over various areas as a Trough, ITCZ and Tropical Wave 26 approach the region.
A weak nearby ITCZ as well as an approaching Trough ahead of Tropical Wave 26 is expected to encounter an overall favorable atmospheric setup that will support the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at various points of tomorrow.
An initial early morning flare-up in activity favoring but not limited to Tobago, Southern and Eastern Trinidad will be followed by a secondary flare up near midday with activity favoring but not limited to interior, western coastal and/or hilly regions of Trinidad, becoming mostly settled by sunset.
Tuesday: Tropical Wave 26 as well as its associated weak area of low pressure traverses the islands north of T&T with locally minimal effects. However, localized strong showers and isolated thunderstorms are still possible through late day.
Wednesday: Following the passage of TW 26, periodic unsettled conditions are again expected, favoring but not limited to the early to mid-morning periods with showers and isolated thunderstorms over various areas as a mild to moderately stimulated ITCZ lingers overhead, becoming settled near sunset.