Weather: Periods of Heavy Rainfall are to affect the Islands Rest of the Week … Localized Flash & River Flooding + Landslide Risk is Elevated (Could Become More Likely with Successive Days of Rain). The best chance for heavy is in the southern islands. Less rainfall with breaks is more likely in the northern islands from Thursday.
A mid-upper low has moved over and just west of the Windwards. The islands are under the best conditions for enhanced rainfall. At low levels there are multiple troughs which will pass during the week.
The axis of one is passing the islands this evening. Expect periods of of moderate to heavy showers, continuous rain and isolated thunderstorms. Gusty winds with locally rough seas are likely till Wed.
A low-mid level trough is around Suriname/Guyana and will pass the islands around late Wed-Thurs. It will maintain occasional periods of rain, some moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Another well defined low-mid level trough will enter French Guiana Wednesday bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to rest of Suriname and Guyana Thursday and Friday especially. Then on Friday to Saturday in Trinidad and the Windwards.
The large scale upper air forecast is favorable for heavy rainfall periods in the region for next week or so. Flash flooding, river flooding ad landslide events will become increasingly likely during periods of high rain rates and/or after multiple periods of rain. Given wet soils last couple weeks, it may become easier for localized to more general flooding to occur at some point in a vulnerable locations. Please prepare and pay attention to alerts by met offices and disaster offices.
A moderate to fresh wind flow will continue to push patches of low level clouds and pockets of moisture across the area, resulting in period of unsettled weather conditions over the next 24 hours. Additionally, above normal winds will maintain hazardous marine conditions.
