Weather: Eastern Caribbean to witness moderate to heavy showers with slight thunderstorms

The islands are on the dry side of a large upper trough. Expect mostly light to briefly moderate showers next 24 hours. The upper trough extends down to northern South America and the favorable side is helping convection there.

Weather: Eastern Caribbean to witness moderate to heavy showers
Weather: Eastern Caribbean to witness moderate to heavy showers

Caribbean: The islands are on the dry side of a large upper trough. Expect mostly light to briefly moderate showers next 24 hours. The upper trough extends down to northern South America and the favorable side is helping convection there. Over Trinidad area there is a better chance for isolated moderate to heavy showers with slight chance of thunderstorms as ITCZ convergence ahead of a tropical wave comes through later Friday. This is already impacting Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana and affect mainly southern islands Saturday.

The tropical wave is followed by a surface trough to affect Guianas thru Saturday but most energy with tis is with a weak circulation near 13.5N/49W which will be pulled NW. Some moisture may reach the Leewards late weekend. Steering wind flow is weakening due to the deep upper trough so if heavy showers develop they can accumulate quick amounts (See 2nd pic showing weak steering wind at low to mid levels).

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic could possibly develop but stay moving NW in the open ocean.

TS Karl is weak and will bring heavy rainfall to western Yucatan and other southern Mexican states.

There are areas of moderate to heavy showers over the Windwards and some earlier in NE Trinidad and Tobago. Grenada has reported some thundershowers in the southern half. Some of these have briefly very heavy with higher rain rates.

In the Bay of Campeche/SW Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Jaren formed this afternoon after a low pressure which was the northern portion of former Julia settled there… that region is known to provide a good environment of semi-circular coastline and mountains which helps cyclones spin up faster. Karen is expected to face upper wind shear and remain a moderate TS but provide heavy flooding rainfall to Mexico. Avery heavy rainband has formed on the SE side from seabreeze convergence of the Yucatan. Usually a trough forms on the Yucatan after daytime heating and thunderstorms move across to the west or NW into the BOC. Karen’s developing circulation has stolen this energy.