Tropical wave to produce heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms across Windwards

A robust tropical wave, with a 2nd following quickly, is producing areas of moderate to heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms north of Guianas.

Tropical wave to produce heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms across Windwards
Tropical wave to produce heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms across Windward

Weather: A robust tropical wave, with a 2nd following quickly, is producing areas of moderate to heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms north of Guianas. The axis is entering French Guiana, but the forward edge of moisture will quickly move into the Windwards and Trinidad late Monday. 

There is broad low-mid level spin in the 1st wave, stronger at mid-levels(2nd pic) which will help produce convergence of moisture. Periods of showers, rain and gusty winds will continue in Windwards, T&T and spread to the Leewards and PR/VI Tuesday to Thursday as the 2nd wave’s moisture comes in.

Models hint at further periods of heavy rainfall to end the week in the southern islands. An upper trough north of the Antilles with the remnants of Cindy will cause a deep SE flow flow from mid-week and by Friday the ITCZ will shift north across Trinidad and the south Windwards then central WIndwards into Saturday.

Some interesting stuff on recent models to watch for next week. Hints of a low pressure forming from a tropical wave that will move off Africa Tues-Wed and move quickly at low latitude.

 It has shown up in Euro ensembles, and others too. The low develops somewhat east of Trinidad but stays weak in the 7-10 day period. At minimum, if it does indeed stay week, the concern is for rainfall on top of prior rainfall which appears to be on the way in the next 5-6 days.

Tropical Storm Bret continues to move in a westward direction and will enter the Caribbean area during the next 24 hours. Bret is forecasted to move with most of its active weather and winds north of the ABC islands tonight and Saturday morning. 

Meanwhile, current analysis indicates that the ABC islands remain outside of the forecast area of the possible trajectory of this tropical cyclone. Weather forecaster has been asking for adopting the vigilant approach in the Hurricane Season 2023.