Barbados: The Barbados Meteorological Services has been continuously closely monitoring the progress of a tropical wave located near 56W south of 15N at 12 Noon on Tuesday 4th, October 2022.
Current Situation: Over the past six (6) hours the system has not changed much in its overall structure and it remains rather disorganized with most of the deep convection remaining to the east and southeast of the axis. So far for the evening sustained winds of 35mph and a gust of about 47mph have been recorded at Charnocks.
Overnight and during the course of the morning, deep convection increased near the centre of the mid-level circulation, located near 11N 56W. This is about 430 km ( 270 miles) east southeast of Barbados. The system also remained disorganized, however deep convective development has also expected to continue over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Intensity Forecast: Conditions will be marginally favourable for some slow development throughout today as it approaches Barbados and the Windward islands. Model guidance is now suggesting that the upper-level trough will shift farther north, which should allow for some slow development of the system to continue as it passes across the region in the early hours of Wednesday.
Track Forecast: As per the department, the system has been expected to track west to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph for the next 12 to 24 hours. The weather should bring the system to that area in the early hours of tomorrow, Wednesday, 5th October 2022.
Special Note: Regardless of development, this wave could produce 2 to 3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts of 4 inches in moderate to heavy showers. Winds are currently predicted to range between 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
The Barbados Meteorological Services has outlined various suggestions which can be followed by the people of Barbados:
The services asked the public to remain alert for updates from the BMS on the various system for the next 12 to 24 hours.
The next update will be at 5 pm today Tuesday 4th October 2022 or sooner if conditions warrant. For more information people could visit www.barbadosweather.org. Download the BMS Insight app and CAP.CAP app from the Google Play Store.