Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Dominica on Tuesday. It is marked that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Dominica
Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Dominica

Roseau, Dominica: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Dominica on Tuesday. It is marked that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

At 5 PM, the centre of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 12.2 north, longitude 48.6 west or about 880 miles east southeast of Dominica. Bret is moving quickly toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the centre of the system is now projected to pass a bit more southerly across the Lesser Antilles towards the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 

Additional strengthening is forecast; however, Bret is expected to maintain tropical storm status on its approach. The estimated arrival of the earliest tropical storm force winds is from Thursday morning. Uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Bret makes it difficult to specify the exact location and magnitude of where hazards could occur.

POSSIBLE CONDITIONS:

  • Tropical Storm Bret is expected to increase wind speeds from Thursday, gusting to tropical storm force, particularly overnight;
  • There are chances of showers and thunderstorms from overnight Thursday into Friday. It could lead to widespread flooding, possibly 100 to 150 mm / 4 to 6 inches of rainfall or greater in higher elevations of possibly 8 to 10 inches;
  • There are chances of deterioration in sea conditions on the east coast on Thursday. The waves are expected to peak at 4.0m/12.0ft. 

POSSIBLE IMPACTS:

  • The Tropical Storm can be the reason for the overflowing of the Rivers, Streams, gutters and ravines from overnight Thursday.
  • There are chances of landslides and rock falls from overhanding cliffs.
  • The conversion of the loose objects into gusty winds
  • It will possibly impact the people living near the coast. 

The government of Dominica issued an advisory for the public and asked them to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bret. People should ensure their hurricane season plans and ready for activation to protect life, property and livelihood. The Dominica Meteorological Service will continue to provide updates as they become available. 

Along with that, NHC center track passes north of Barbados Thursday afternoon then over St Lucia Thursday night. The majority of models and their average ensemble tracks are over St Lucia today. The GEFS and EPS, the Superblend mean, the Euro, UKMET, HMON, and a few other main models are over or close to St Lucia.

Few models take the centre/core into the islands faster from Thursday morning to afternoon, so beware for timing. More is expected to be issued tonight or morning. By Wed morning, the region would be within 24-36 hours to event where warnings would be more appropriate. St Vincent needs to watch too given track uncertainty and decent center track probability (4th pic)… Martinique on this track will get storm force winds.

Heavy flooding rainfall is possible regardless of track…. but the track will affect totals. On current track, morning WPC forecast called for heaviest 4-6 inches with 10 inches max from St. Lucia to Guadeloupe. 2-4 inches SVG, Barbados. Their afternoon maps seem to suggest St. Vincent may get a bit more.