Tropical depression or storm likely to form in Caribbean, says NHC

A low-pressure system in the Caribbean is likely to become a tropical depression or storm as soon as later this week

Caribbean: A low-pressure system in the Caribbean is likely to become a tropical depression or storm as soon as later this week, and it could be a possible source of concern from Mexico to the western US Gulf Coast.

It’s too early to know what effects this system could have early next week on parts of the western Gulf Coast, but interests from Louisiana and Texas to Mexico should closely monitor its progress over the next few days until the forecast comes into greater focus.

Ida and Julian will be the names for the next two tropical storms to erupt in the Atlantic this season.

Forecast

The disturbance is currently located in the central Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center has designated this system as Invest 99L, a naming convention used to identify features they monitor for possible formation in a tropical depression or storm.

It is only later this week or this weekend when forecasting models depict a tropical depression or storm arising from this disturbance. This can happen anywhere in the red shadow on the map below, near Central America to the Yucatan in Mexico and the Southern Gulf.

There could be at least a heavy rain threat from parts of Central America to the Yucatan later this week until early weekend.

The forecast is less clear beyond the time frame, but it’s worth watching in the coming days, especially if you live along the western Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Texas and Mexico.

The disturbance, whether a tropical depression or storm, could be located early Sunday somewhere in the southern Gulf of Mexico. His track record and strength early next week will depend on at least two factors.

First, it is unclear exactly where and when this system will eventually consolidate and develop. This could have long-term implications for its future track and intensity.

Another critical factor is the position and strength of a high-pressure ridge northward over the southern United States.

If the altitude is such that this system can reach its western periphery, a more northwesterly movement in the Gulf is possible. It could have the potential direct impact in Texas or even Louisiana.

There is still a chance that the high pressure system will be placed in a way that sends this system on a more westerly path to the Gulf Coast of Mexico.

The bottom line is that it is too early to determine the ultimate outcome of this system and possible consequences. Forecast changes are likely in the coming days, so it’s best to keep up to date.

Whatever happens, this system will at least cause an increase in moisture that increases rainfall near the western US Gulf Coast early next week. Coastal areas can also see high tidal and tearing currents.