Trinidad and Tobago: Two analysed tropical waves over the Atlantic to the east of the Lesser Antilles are expected. The axis of the nearest tropical wave is, at this time, near 52° west longitude.
This wave is moving relatively quickly and Trinidad and Tobago can begin to see some of the associated weather from Friday (tomorrow) into Saturday.
The other tropical wave is to the eastern Atlantic to the west of the Cabo Verde islands. An associated area of disturbance has been tagged with a 40% probability for tropical cyclone development over the next seven (7) days.
The present projected path is to the west to west-northwest which is expected to take it to the northeast of the Leeward islands by Monday.
Low-level convergence, in association with the ITCZ, is expected to produce partly cloudy to cloudy periods from pre-dawn hours with light to moderate showers in varying areas and a medium chance (40% – 60%) for isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms.
From late afternoon conditions are expected to become generally fair but with the chance for brief showers in a few areas. Winds mostly from southeast to east-southeast.
Low-level convergence and instability associated with a tropical wave is expected to produce partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to moderate showers in varying areas.
There is a medium chance (40% – 60%) for a heavy shower or thunderstorm activity. Generally fair evening and night with brief showers likely in a few areas. Winds mostly from southeast to east-southeast.
Low-level convergence is likely to produce some partly cloudy to cloudy patches, interrupting fair conditions with light to moderate showers in some areas.
There is a medium chance (40% – 60%) for isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms to develop, mainly during the late morning to early afternoon. Winds from south-southeast to east-southeast.
The passage of a tropical wave (or possibly, an area of disturbance) to the north-northeast of the Lesser Antilles is likely to begin to induce some convergence and a low-level trough over Trinidad and Tobago.
There is the likelihood for partly cloudy to cloudy periods to interrupt fair periods at times, with light to moderate showers, especially during the morning, with a medium chance (40% – 60%) for a heavy shower or thunderstorm. Winds from the south-southeast to southeast.
Some low level convergence at the base of an area of ridging across Trinidad and Tobago is likely to produce mixed conditions. Partly cloudy to cloudy patches with light to moderate showers in some areas interrupting fair periods.
A low to medium chance (20% – 40%) for a heavy shower or thunderstorm. Winds from southeast to east.
In the event of a heavy shower or thunderstorm, winds can become gusty and street or flash flooding is likely in the vicinity. With the occurrence of prolonged precipitation, the risk of landslips or landslides becomes elevated.
Saharan dust: The Saharan dust concentration in the atmosphere is expected to fluctuate between mild to moderate over the coming week.