Flood Watch in effect for Dominica, witnesses cloudy and breezy conditions 

A flood watch is in effect until Tuesday, November 22, 2022 in Dominica. A trough system is expected to affect the area during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Flood Watch in effect for Dominica, witnesses cloudy and breezy conditions 
Flood Watch in effect for Dominica, witnesses cloudy and breezy conditions 

Weather: A flood watch is in effect until Tuesday, November 22, 2022 in Dominica. A trough system is expected to affect the area during the next 24 to 48 hours. This will result in generally cloudy and breezy conditions, with showers which could be moderate to heavy at times and a chance of isolated thunderstorms. 

On Tuesday, further deterioration in conditions is expected, particularly over the southern portion of the Lesser Antilles in Dominica. A Flood Watch is in effect until 12 noon, Tuesday, November 22. Flash flooding is possible during this period. People in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks, particularly in eastern communities, should be vigilant.

 Periods of Heavy Rainfall to Affect the Islands Most of the Week … Localized Flash and River Flooding + Landslide Risk is Elevated (Could Become More Likely with Successive Days of Rain). Breaks in rainy periods are more likely in the northern islands.

Over the last few days a mid-upper low has moved SW then W towards the southern islands. It will move into the southeast Caribbean Sea and maintain its favorable environment for rainfall for several days. At low levels there are multiple troughs which have formed and will become further enhanced as they pass during the week.

The axis of one is passing Puerto Rico and VI. It brought areas of moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms today causing localized flooding in Trinidad. In Windwards rainfall totals were around 10-20mm generally with few spots of 35-50mm. Another is just east of the Lesser Antilles and will pass early Tuesday To Wed. It is passing around the same time the upper low so will have a better chance of scattered moderate to heavy showers, periods of continuous rain and thunderstorms. Gusty winds with locally rough seas are likely Mon PM to Wednesday.

A 3rd low-mid level trough is around French Guiana stretching north and will pass the islands around Wed-Thurs. It will maintain periods of rain, some moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms.

A 4th surface to low level is east of French Guiana and will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms Friday to Saturday in the Windwards.

The large scale upper air is forecast to become more favorable for rainfall and thunderstorm growth during the next 5-10 days. A favorable phase of the Kelvin Wave (blue colours 6th pic) passes at the same time the MJO is becoming favorable(2nd map; blue colors 7th pic). This means that confidence is high in expectations of heavy rainfall periods in the region.

Flash flooding, river flooding ad landslide events will become increasingly likely during periods of high rain rates and/or after multiple periods of rain. Given wet soils last couple weeks, it may become easier for more general widespread flooding to occur at some point in a few locations. Even though it is hard to predict, people in the islands need to prepare for this possibility since the conditions are there for those hazards. Please pay attention to alerts by met offices and disaster offices.